Nature's Role in National Security: Ecological Disruptions and Risks

The authors (Cardinale, Duffy, Schoonover) present a review arguing that biological changes to ecosystems—“natural infrastructure”—directly influence national security and should be integrated into security planning.

• Main announcement/action: The paper draws explicit links between ecological disruptions (e.g., habitat loss, biodiversity loss, invasive species, pests, overharvesting) and five national security dimensions (food security, water scarcity, health security, disaster protection, environmental crime). The authors document concrete cases and timelines: the 2019–21 desert locust outbreak affecting Ethiopia/East Africa and Pakistan (locust swarms destroyed crops and prompted national emergencies); the 2014–2017 São Paulo drought intensified by Amazon deforestation (multi-year water rationing); the 2016 Chile red tide that destroyed ~100,000 MT of salmon and industry losses estimated at US$9 million/day; the 2024 California wildfires that burned >1 million acres, caused $3.5 billion in agricultural losses and a $5 billion tourism decline. The paper characterizes ecological disruptions as “actorless threats” and “threat multipliers” that interact with climate change.

• Background and supporting details: The review synthesizes policy and evidence from agencies and assessments (e.g., National Intelligence Council, FAO, IPBES, WEF), quantifies illegal environmental crime values (total estimated at US$91–258 billion/year, illegal wildlife trade US$7–24 billion/year), and cites high black‑market prices (e.g., tiger parts up to US$50,000 each; musk glands up to US$250,000; rhino horn up to US$65,000/kg; totoaba maw >US$11,000/lb). It recommends conservation, restoration, and ecological design as policy levers to safeguard natural infrastructure. The article is a non-peer-reviewed EarthArXiv preprint with corresponding author contact and ORCID provided.