WTO upgrades 2025 world trade growth forecast

The WTO updated its global merchandise trade forecast on 8 August, raising 2025 growth to 0.9% and highlighting the impacts of US import frontloading and recent tariff increases.

• Forecast update (8 August): 2025 world merchandise trade growth revised to 0.9% (previously -0.2% in April; pre-tariff estimate 2.7%). Key quantified items: US imports +11% y/y in H1 2025; Q1 +14% q/q (seasonally adjusted) followed by Q2 -16% q/q; North America imports now expected -8.3% in 2025 (was -9.6% in April); Asia exports +4.9% (up from 1.6%); Europe’s exports -0.9% and imports +0.4% in 2025.
• Tariff developments & outlook: Higher “reciprocal” tariffs that came into force on 7 August are expected to weigh increasingly on trade, pulling next year’s expected trade volume growth down to 1.8% (from 2.5% previously). The WTO cites temporary positive effects from US-China and US-UK agreements and will monitor impacts on the share of trade under MFN principles; these are confirmed policy changes and ongoing monitoring actions by the WTO Secretariat.