Air Conditioning Adoption in Mexico Exceeded Predictions

Lucas W. Davis and Paul Gertler find air conditioning adoption in Mexico accelerated faster than their 2015 predictions.

• Revisited analysis: Used household-level microdata from Mexico and 12 years of additional data to reassess predictions from Davis and Gertler (2015); found air conditioning in Mexico has accelerated, significantly exceeding our predictions; the gap is not explained by income growth, rising temperatures, migration patterns, or an overly restrictive model.
• Identified drivers & data commitments: The authors attribute the prediction gap to falling electricity prices and technological improvements in air conditioner efficiency; they state all code and data will be posted on their websites upon completion and report no financial compensation or financial relationships for this project.