Macroeconomic impact of weather disasters: global analysis

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published Working Paper No.1292 on 26 September 2025 analysing the macroeconomic effects of weather disasters across up to 151 countries for 2000–24.

• Main analysis and findings: The paper uses panel local projections to estimate cumulative effects on GDP over 16 quarters and on prices over 12 months, studying seven disaster types (cold waves, droughts, floods, heat waves, landslides, storms, wildfires). It reports average-sized droughts, landslides and wildfires reduce GDP by −2%, −1% and −0.4% respectively over four years; and finds larger, more persistent increases in food prices versus other CPI components.
• Scope, data and policy-relevant details: Sample sizes vary by analysis: 89 countries for quarterly real GDP growth (2000–24), 54–131 countries for sectoral annual output, and 151 countries for monthly inflation components. The paper highlights affected sectors (agriculture-forestry-fishing; mining-construction-water-energy) and notes that fiscal space and insurance can mitigate disaster impacts.