East African NDC implementation gaps and climate finance shortfalls

The Governance and Economic Policy Centre publishes an analysis by Nader Khalifa on the viability of East African NDCs, highlighting widening implementation and climate finance gaps relative to Paris Agreement goals.

• East African NDCs (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda) show increased ambition in 2030 mitigation and adaptation targets but rely on 70–90% external finance, need USD 280–300 billion by 2030, and currently implement only 20–30% of planned mitigation actions, constrained by weak MRV systems, limited mainstreaming in budgets, slow GCF/GEF disbursements (18–36 months) and low private investment (< USD 4 billion/year vs USD 24–30 billion needed).
• European and multilateral climate finance remains misaligned with African priorities, with only 12–15% of European climate finance reaching the poorest vulnerable African countries, adaptation finance below 30% of flows and far under the USD 52–57 billion/year adaptation need vs < USD 11.4 billion/year received, contributing to a USD 1.2–1.3 trillion finance gap for African NDCs by 2030 and prompting recommendations on institutional strengthening, MRV upgrades, climate finance strategies, community participation, and regional cooperation post‑COP30.