EIA forecasts flat summer gas use, 2027 record

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts summer natural gas consumption for electric power will remain near recent highs in 2026 and set a record in 2027.

• Main forecast: The EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts 43.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) average natural gas consumption for the U.S. electric power sector in summer 2026 (June–September), the same as summer 2025 and 4% above the 2021–2025 five-year summer average; it forecasts 46.1 Bcf/d in summer 2027 (a 6% increase, +2.4 Bcf/d), surpassing the 2024 record by 3%.
• Context and drivers: The STEO notes a 2% increase in overall U.S. electricity demand this summer and projects renewables will grow to 25% of generation in 2027 (from 21% in 2025); it cites new data centers and large manufacturing facilities—particularly in Texas (ERCOT) and Virginia (PJM)—as key commercial drivers, and forecasts West South Central commercial and industrial demand up 20% (summer 2025 to 2027) and ERCOT natural gas generation up 22% over the same period. Background links: May STEO and ERCOT CEO update are referenced.