McKinsey: Semiconductor market could be $1.6 trillion by 2030

McKinsey & Company has announced revised market-size estimates: the semiconductor market was worth about $775 billion in 2024 and could reach $1.6 trillion (base case; range $1.5–$1.8 trillion) by 2030.

• Main finding and baseline: McKinsey reports a 2024 market value of $775 billion (about 14–23% higher than common $630–$680 billion estimates) and a 2030 base-case of $1.6 trillion (low-to-high scenario $1.1 trillion to $1.8 trillion); the firm attributes upward revision to inclusion of captive chip designers, OEMs with in-house design, and undercounted Chinese capacity.
• Methodology and breakdown: The analysis replaces sales-based sizing with company-specific valuation approaches (COGS + estimated internal gross margins for OEMs, full CoWoS package value for fabless, internal R&D/COGS/G&A for captive designers), and provides a 2024 breakdown: $604 billion (all players outside China), $93 billion (companies headquartered in China), $52 billion (OEMs with in-house design), $25 billion (captive chip designers).