FDI reshapes future industries, AI, and batteries

MGI published a report analyzing announced greenfield FDI projects (2015–May 2025) and finds a decisive shift of announced investment toward future-shaping industries such as data centers (AI infrastructure), semiconductors, EVs/batteries, critical minerals, and low-emissions energy.

• Main finding: The report analyzes roughly 180,000–200,000 announced greenfield FDI projects and shows that since 2022 ~75% of cross-border announcements target future-shaping industries and resources; announced annualized greenfield FDI rose from $1,137 billion (2015–19) to $1,407 billion (2022–May 2025), driven largely by megadeals (>$1 billion) that now account for about half of total announced value. Key sector details: data centers ≈ $170 billion/yr (since 2022; could reach >$370 billion if early-2025 pace continues), semiconductor-related ≈ $115 billion/yr to new fabs, low-emissions energy ≈ $330 billion/yr (three-quarters of energy announcements), and announced hydrogen ≈ $160 billion/yr (high uncertainty; few projects in construction).
• Background and additional details: The shift is geopolitically patterned—advanced economies increased investments among themselves (US attracted large inflows, boosted by Advanced Asia investors), while announced inflows to China fell by nearly 70% relative to the earlier period. About 200 megadeals annually (≈1% of deals) drive most value; examples and specifics: TSMC accounted for roughly $100 billion of early-2025 US-directed announcements, the Calcasieu Parish LNG project cited at $17.5 billion, and several large EV/battery gigafactories with targeted openings in 2025–2026. The report emphasizes that announcements are not firm commitments (historical realization rates vary), cites 60–80% typical realization, and notes many hydrogen megaprojects have not reached construction.