Faster-than-expected data center growth could increase fossil generation

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published an analysis showing that faster-than-expected electricity demand growth driven by data centers could increase natural gas and coal generation and raise wholesale electricity prices.

• Main analysis and assumptions: The EIA produced a high demand growth scenario in which 2026 and 2027 growth rates are 50% higher than the February STEO in data-center-heavy regions, while other regions are +1 percentage point above STEO; the scenario assumes no additional generating capacity beyond the February STEO and applies an assumed +$0.50/MMBtu increase in natural gas delivered prices across regions.
• Key modeled outcomes and metrics: Under the scenario, natural gas generation rises to +7.3% (123 BkWh) between 2025–2027 (vs 1.7% baseline), coal generation declines by 5.0% (37 BkWh) nationwide in the high case, and ERCOT 2027 wholesale prices model +$37/MWh above the February STEO (excluding ERCOT the average 2027 wholesale price is +$2.10/MWh above the STEO forecast of $48/MWh).